The vulnerability of the agriculture sector to both climate change and variability is well established and there is a consensus that changes in temperature and precipitation will result in:

• changes in land and water regimes that affect agricultural productivity

• changes in crop yields in especially vulnerable tropical regions; and

• rural poverty increased as livelihoods are threatened

Although estimates suggest global food production is robust, significant regional disparities are likely. Poorer developing countries are likely to be especially affected (UNDP)

Farmers

AS any farmer will tell you, the production of food relies greatly on the weather. Historically, weather fluctuated from year to year, while climate—the average weather conditions over time—remained much the same. Now, increases in the atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases have led to a climb in the global temperatures during the past 20 years. As a result, scientists, farmers, and government officials are struggling to understand what effects a permanently warmer climate will have on agriculture.

Farmers around the world have always talked and worried about the weather obsessively. Climate change makes these worries even more pronounced especially in the Global South.

Yvo de Boer, executive secretary of the UN’s Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), is unequivocal, in saying that the scientific evidence to climate change leaves us no doubt as to the dangers mankind is facing.  One of the areas that are of great concern is agriculture, the impact of climate change will be devastating not only in the Global South but also in the North.

Climate and agriculture.

Land use worldwide accounts for an estimated 20 percent of the total greenhouse emissions.  So basically  farming is a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions.

However the immediate problem according to most experts will be the agriculture’s vulnerability to climate change and the grave consequences this implies for the world’s poor and hungry. Drought, severe storms and flooding are hardly news for farmers in the developing world. They have been contending with such catastrophes since the beginnings of agriculture 10,000 years ago. But never before have so many rural people been so vulnerable. However the greater frequency of occurrence, especially in the tropics and the fundamental changes in rainfall patterns, rising temperatures etc will shorten growing seasons and reduce crop productivity.  This will impact approximately 63 percent of the developing world’s total population.

A major reason for the vulnerability of developing country farmers to global climate change is the limit to options. The limitation has been gradually introduced by policies, institutions, and practices and as the changes in lifestyles coping strategies. This is amplified by the degradation of the soil, water, forests and other plant resources on which their livelihoods depend.

An estimated 500 million hectares of agricultural land are already degraded in Sub-Saharan Africa, this is the same land that feeds majority of its inhabitants.  Agriculture on these lands is also rainfed.  In a situation where the rainfall patterns are already quite erratic this is projected to worsen with climate change. Rural folk in developing countries depend on agriculture, the threat posed by climate change must be confronted as a priority and immediate action.

Global climate change poses an unprecedented challenge to humanity’s skill at maintaining viable livelihoods under highly diverse and variable climatic and environmental conditions.

Some Research Findings

Models have shown that in Africa maize, wheat and wild relatives will be impacted negatively by climate change.  The models have also shown that there is a lot of local variability based on the micro-ecosystems.  But as a generall trend, while the population in Africa is expanding, the food production system is increasingly under pressure and most important urgent question is how to deal with the projected decline of the cereals (Global Climate Change; Can Agriculture Cope? CGIAR).